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The Great Lull Continues

News you can use….

Gun Sales Fall Under 1 Million For First Time In Six Years; Ammo Prices Sink To Lows

After years of pandemic-fueled surges and politically driven buying sprees, the U.S. gun market is sliding deeper into a downturn. With Republicans controlling both Congress and the White House, fears of sweeping federal gun bans from far-left Democrats have abated, stripping away one of the industry’s most reliable sales catalysts.

The latest July figures from the FBI show 1.94 million National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background checks, down 4.2% from July 2024. After removing permit-related checks, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) estimated 978,731 checks directly tied to gun sales, an 8.1% drop year-over-year and the first sub-million reading in six years….

….The gun panic-buying frenzy of 2020 and 2021 was never sustainable and has since ended in a complete bust for the industry. Notably, the downturn is likely to persist through President Trump’s second term, given that a pro-2A administration won’t infringe on gun owners, unlike the Biden-Harris regime, which aggressively did so.

The ammo prices part isn’t really accurate. For 5.56mm you are still paying close to $.40 per round unless you want to pay exorbitant shipping costs and you still are paying more for basic FMJ brass case 9mm than pre-”pandemic”. Those prices might start to really drop if anything comes of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska but as the diminutive “warrior” Zelensky seems unwilling to concede any territory, including Crimea which Russia has controlled for more than a decade, that seems unlikely.

What this means for me and what it means for you. Gun prices will continue to be cheap and deep discounts are going to be generous and common. They need to keep the machines running so right now I would expect places like Palmetto State are making more guns than they can sell or at a minimum they are not selling through inventory quite as quickly.

Manufacturers will rely on gimmick guns, the same guns with different cerakote patterns or bundled with gear and gadgets to get the attention of buyers who already have a safe full of guns. I am seeing this already, no one is getting transfers of Glock 19s at this point, everything coming in is something a little exotic or unusual. Lots of used guns instead of new firearms.

I expect to see further consolidation in the industry like we saw with Ruger buying Anderson (see Poverty Phoenix). Weaker fringe players will go out of business or be gobbled up by bigger companies. That isn’t a great thing but on the other hand some of these companies selling garbage products should go out of business (looking at you SCCY).

As I constantly remind everyone, this is a golden age of gun buying but it could change in the blink of an eye. In late 2019 I remember buying 9mm from a local Dunhams, I bought as many boxes as would fit in one of those little shopping baskets and I think I paid around $.15 per round. At the time I kind of felt silly buying so much. A few months later? The “pandemic” started and then the riots and pretty soon you couldn’t buy 9mm for any amount of money. At the worst one of my main distributors would have literally nothing available for sale, this morning they have over 1,800 models of pistols in stock.

I assume many of my readers have more guns than they know what to do with but for those with some space in the safe, prices aren’t likely to go much lower. Do with that info what you will.

31 Comments

  1. John Perry

    We make tooling for ammo production and work has remained steady. In the near future we will be making components for Norma inhouse, but not sure what calibers we will be running.

  2. Don Curton

    Walked thru the local Cabelas/Bass Pro yesterday. Didn’t see any real sales prices on firearms, but then again that particular Cabelas has always been a bitch about gun sales. They aren’t known for being a good gun store, only for being a big gun store. I had enough gift cards (only reason I go there) to buy a pistol straight up with no extra cash, but didn’t see anything that struck my fancy. Might go back just to cash in the gift cards – looking at maybe a Ruger SP101. That or a fuck-ton of fishing gear I’ll probably never use. They did have a used Henry 30-30 lever gun, but of course I already have 3 other 30-30’s and obviously I probably need that one too. For reasons.

    In any event, that store at least isn’t lowering gun prices just yet.

    • ozark homesteader

      Cabela’s…the kind of place with a SP101 on the shelf and no holsters for it anywhere in sight.

      There was a place up in CDA (Dweezil the Weasel surely knows about it) that featured a whole display case of 1911’s and NO iwb holsters for 1911’s, no pancake holsters for 1911’s. Only that dad’s brother mickey’s brand, and the kydex kind they sell to armed security guards with Level III retention. But hey, if you needed a pair of overly large, mirror lensed, neon orange sunglasses, or another tumbler from the company that HATES the Second Amendment you were all set.

      Even if the cads behind the gun case and the store manager aren’t smarter than that, you’d think there’d be a buyer/merchandiser in an office somewhere smart enough to know better.

        • ozark homesteader

          I believe the store that I am thinking of was a pretty big sporting goods store across the parking lot to the membership store with the excellent apple caramel muffins.

          I used to get polypropylene glove liners there for $4 a pair and a two-pack of CR123’s for $2.99.

          Wasn’t a terrible store overall, but the gun department was underperforming IMHO.

  3. ozark homesteader

    God sent Joseph into Egypt before the famine hit and told Joseph famine was coming. Joseph acted wisely and procured food ahead so that when his brothers came looking for supplies he had abundance to assure their survival. God always provides.

    Welcome to the golden age of waiting for the party to get started.

    Sometimes its disappointing to get up and realize that its leg day again already.

    • LargeMarge

      1)
      My heritage is Northern European.
      I have zero interest in any of those east-Mediterranean death-cults.
      .
      b)
      With our substantial oral and written histories of overcoming hardship, my people learned about consequences from an early age, our Elders deeply involved in the security of our extended community.
      Example:
      Starting three years ago, my people prepared for next year’s winter.
      .
      Anything less resulted in the slacker begging for scraps.
      Anything less resulted in better-prepared shaming the lazy.
      .
      And here we see one fundamental difference between us and equatorial populations:
      * Warm year-round with food in easy reach, the brown never needed to develop the area of the brain required for planning and consequences.
      Their village of dung-huts always melts during malaria season and tsetse fly season.
      Fortunately for the brown, dung season is year-round.
      .
      The other fundamental difference is infant and child mortality.
      The brown has nineteen offspring because seventeen would be supper for wild animals and browns from the next village.
      .
      In a lazy society, low-hanging fruit and stupit children are always in-season.
      Lineage of the meal is irrelevant.
      Eat their kid or eat the neighbor’s kid, their easily-replaceable interchangeable — aka ‘cheap’ — nature eliminates the indulgence of sentimentality.
      .
      In civilized society — and lacking the capacity to understand consequences — the brown continues the tradition of pumping out plenty of cheap exchangeable replacements.
      Unfortunately, few animal predators roam today’s equivalent of dung-huts, inner-city slums.
      .
      Their tradition of killing competitors for the equivalent of low-hanging fruit and an easy meal of L’Quornelius with D’Anshay as dessert?
      That would be a major segment of brown DNA.
      .
      The brown is an evolutionary dead-end, incompatible with Northern European Heritage folk.
      .
      The chinese, our extreme latitude neighbors, boast the capability to eliminate six billion equatorial types in just a few minutes.
      As an evolutionary dead-end, the brown really has no ability to comprehend the fragility of their existence.
      .
      One last point needs to be made very clear to the brown:
      * We have the cotton thing covered, you can go home now.

      • Don Curton

        “The brown is an evolutionary dead-end”

        The problem with Darwinism is that it doesn’t always select for the “best” as we see it. It selects for the most likely to succeed based on very low and base criteria. Given that Whites are less than 16% of the total global population, it appears that the brown strategy of pushing out dozens of retard level babies is the evolutionary future. Whether they can create or maintain a civilization is not important – only that they can continue to reproduce at a rate higher than the overall death rate.

        While I generally agree with everything you post, it is my opinion that the White race, the White culture, and Western civilization in general are antithetical to evolutionary theory. Everything we do is to survive against the cold cruel world that would wipe it’s ass with us and flush us down the toilet bowl. With most families choosing to have fewer children, a very slight change in infant mortality would wipe out the Whites while barely affecting the browns. Cough cough clot shot. We can’t hate the covid pushers enough. They should be swing from gallows.

  4. J J

    I haven’t bought any new guns and not much ammo the past year. In the last 3 weeks bought 2 new Walthers in .380 (new caliber for me) and the ammo needed for range time. Both were well below MSRP and the second one I got for 40% off the store’s price which was already below MSRP.

    Ammo prices definitely still too high.

  5. TakeAHardLook

    The venerable 1911 may be the best semi-auto ever created. This “homage” to the 1911 is, to me, both priceless and amusing (I do not know who was the original author; I found it first on ,” Fr. Frog’s enormously interesting website. Enjoy):

    THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO JOHN (Moses Browning):

    1. In the beginning was the 1911, and the 1911 was the pistol, and it was good. And behold the Lord said, “Thou shalt not muck about with my disciple John’s design, for it is good and it worketh. For John made the 1911, and lo all of his weapons, from the designs which I, the Lord, gave him upon the mountain.

    2. “And shouldst thou muck about with it and hang all manner of foul implements upon it, and profane its internal parts, thou shalt surely have malfunctions, and in the midst of battle thou shalt surely come to harm.”

    3. And as the ages passed men in their ignorance and arrogance didst forget the Word of the Lord and began to profane the 1911. The tribe of the gamesman did place recoil spring guides and extended slide releases upon the 1911 and their metalsmiths didst tighten the tolerances and alter parts to their liking, their clearness of mind being clouded by lust.

    4. Their artisans did hang all manner of foul implements upon the 1911 and did so alter it that it became impractical to purchase. For lo, the artisans didst charge a great tax upon the purchasers of the 1911 so that the lowly field-worker could not afford one. And the profaning of the internal parts didst render it unworkable when the dust of the land fell upon it.

    5. And lo, they didst install adjustable sights, which are an abomination unto the Lord. For they doth break and lose their zero when thou dost need true aim. And those who have done so will be slain in great numbers by their enemies in the great battle.

    6. And it came to pass that the Lord didst see the abomination wrought by man and didst cause, as he had warned, fearful malfunction to come upon the abominations and upon the artisans who thought they could do no wrong.

    7. Seeing the malfunctions and the confusion of men the lord of the underworld did see an opportunity to further ensnare man and didst bring forth pistols made of plastic, whose form was such that they looked and felt like a brick, yet the eyes of man being clouded, they were consumed by the plastic pistol and did buy vast quantities of them.

    8. And being a deceitful spirit the lord of the underworld did make these plastic pistols unamenable to the artisans of earth and they were unable to muck much with the design, and lo these pistols did function.

    9. And the evil one also brought forth pistols in which the trigger didst both cock and fire them and which require a “dingus” to make them appear safe.

    10. But man, being stupid, did not understand these new pistols and did proceed to shoot themselves with the plastic pistol, and with the trigger cocking pistols for lo their manual of arms required great intelligence which man had long since forsaken. Yet man continue to gloat over these new pistols blaming evil forces for the negligent discharges which they themselves had committed.

    11. And when man had been totally ensnared with the plastic pistol, the lord of the underworld didst cause a plague of the terrible Ka-BOOM to descend upon man and the plastic pistols delivered their retribution upon men. And there was a great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the land.

    12. Then seeing that the eyes of man were slowly being opened and that man was truly sorrowful for his sinful misdeeds, the Lord did send his messengers in the form of artisans who did hear and obey the teachings of the Prophet and who didst restore the profaned 1911s to their proper configuration, and lo, to the amazement of men they didst begin to work as the Prophet had intended.

    13. And the men of the land didst drive out the charlatans and profaners from the land, and there was joy and peace in the land, except for the evil sprits which tried occasionally to prey on the men and women of the land, and who were sent to the place of eternal damnation by the followers of John.

    Amen

  6. fourth world turd

    With junk like the 320 being made who can blame people keeping new gun funds close to the vest.
    Remember the lead smelter scare under the chimpy Kenyan bathhouse queen?
    A bud got rich buying/selling ammo out the back door.
    Found box knife on heel and toe and cool sweatshirt with big N and robber with goody bag over shoulder, I can’t wait until it gets chilly.
    LOL

    • ozark homesteader

      I remember when the P3Kablooey came out, Mike Adams actually made a vid saying to get one and to throw your Glocks out. What a maroon.

      Pretty sure that was the last time I listened to a Mike Adams video.

  7. Bobsuruncle

    LMAO my dad has two SCCY, or as he calls them “sissys”, he swears by them, even though he owns much, much better pistols. I just shake my head. Hi-Point, which Ive owned all the calibers are at least hammers when you run out of ammo. Halibut fishermen use them in Alaska, they rust out, or fall over board, buy another. They do shoot fairly well, 35 years ago when doing construction working in niggville, i kept one in my lunch box. So no loss with SCCY going tits up, a lot of boomers gonna be big mad.

  8. Steady Steve

    The last one I bought was a Remington 51. Not the modern one an “antique”. Still shoots accurately and reliably even though it’s only 32ACP. I wonder what modern pistol will last over 100 years like this one has? As far as ammo, I’ve run out of room.

  9. Bad Dancer

    My distributors have been steadily raising prices on me and I about choked when I was going to place an order today. The drop ship and jackwagons like PSA are still selling things below my dealer cost violating MAP in the process.

    Glad I bought H2 and 3 buffers earlier in the year cause those have more than tripled in cost, maybe the tungsten insert?

    A lot of the good deals are missing mom and pop stores and going straight to mega marts who can afford to buy by the truck full. I can count on one hand the amount of people who sent me a transfer from PSA who bought something in store. Even if my price is cheaper they just say they’ll buy online.

    PSA can also eat a brick because they’ve promised on online ffl ordering portal for years now but will never get around to it. Recently I called my rep, a whole ordeal in and of itself, and ordered their 5.7 pistol on sale. Except they sat on the order until monday and then refused to honor the sales price despite the call log. Another customer ordered that pistol plus one of their AKs on the same sale and PSA had no problem getting that processed right quick. I dont make any money on their guns but this is a good customer so I didn’t mind. Now I’m stuck eating the cost difference.

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