A favorite saying of mine, statistics never lie but liars use statistics. Case in point, a recent editorial from one Dana Milbank, writing for the Washington Post opinion pages. Before you ask, here you go:
Dana took to the WaPo (Democracy Dies in Darkness!) to try to deflect what should be the number one issue in front of voters across the country: out of control violent crime in America’s cities. Inflation is of course important but the price of a dozen eggs isn’t that critical compared to being shot.
We will look at some of his claims although I assume that we all know he is lying. Make special note of his use of the word “Murder” in the title as he doesn’t mention murder much, for reasons we will see.
Violent crime is not soaring. In fact, it might be declining.
Most violent crime is committed by White people.
Violent crime is generally worse in Republican-run states.
Let’s take the last one first, because it is the mirror image of the GOP Boomer canard that assumes violent crime in large cities is the result of Democrats being in charge instead of non-White violent crime being out of control.
Which states are generally the most reliably Republican? Usually the Southern states. What else do we know about Southern states?
As anyone with a passing familiarity with American history and demographics knows, blacks are found most commonly in Southern states as that is where most African slaves lived. While many of their descendants moved North, most did not. Even still, the blackest state in the Union, Mississippi, is “only” 37.9% black. So even though Mississippi has a ton of blacks, they have also had a Republican governor for 26 of the last 30 years. MS voted for Trump by a margin of 16% in 2020 and for Orange Man with an even larger margin in 2016. Mississippi last voted for a Democrat for President when Carter barely beat Ford in the state in 1976 but the election prior Nixon beat McGovern in the state by a whopping 78% to 19%.
You see, two things can be true at the same time. Republicans can hold political power in a state AND that state can have a large black population. Even the state with the highest black percentage of the population is barely over 1/3 black. You would think Milbank would use his tribe’s vaunted high verbal IQ to figure this out, but of course he already knows this is the case and is simply lying for political reasons.
You can have high violent crime in a state run by Republicans without making the leap to say that those Republican voters are the ones committing the majority of violent crime.
Let’s look at his claim that Whites commit most violent crimes. Here is what he wrote:
Those “who do the crime,” as Tuberville put it, aren’t the color the Alabamian supposes they are. A report last year from the Justice Department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, using 2018 data, found that White people were offenders in 52 percent of nonfatal violent crimes overall (and 56 percent of rapes or sexual assaults) in which the victim identified the race of the offender. Black people were offenders in 29 percent of nonfatal violent crimes (22 percent of rapes or sexual assaults). Hispanics were offenders in 14 percent of nonfatal violent crimes. The proportion of Black offenders was high relative to the Black proportion of the population (likely a reflection of poverty) but not the stuff of Republican ad-makers’ crime fantasies.
There is a lot to unpack there.
One, it specifically excludes murder, which I believe is the most serious of violent crimes although I could be mistake.
Two, 2018 is the last year that he could claim Whites commit the majority of non-fatal violent crimes. According to the FBI Crime Data Explorer
, in every year since 2018 we have on record (2019-2021), blacks committed an absolute majority of all violent crimes (say it with me) despite being only 13% of the population. Here is 2021:
In 2021 blacks committed around 335,000 violent crimes that we know of, and that is almost 7,000 more violent crimes than Whites even though there are 204 million Whites in America as of 2020 and only 41 million blacks.
As I have demonstrated before, it is reasonable to assume that a majority of unknown offenders are also black.
You might also see that Milbank took great pains to say that Whites commit more rapes in total than blacks (without mentioning that whole per capita thing) but even in 2018 we see something else worth noting.
While Whites committed 36,716 rapes and blacks “only” 16,008 reported rapes in 2018, looking at the victim side tells us something interesting. Whites are 60% of known rapists (11% are unknown) but White women are 74% of rape victims, while blacks are 26% of known rapists, double their representation of the population as a whole, but black women are only 18% of rape victims. To put it another way, 8000 more White women were raped 2018 than White men commited rape and black men commit 5000 more rapes than there are black women raped. Add in the gap of 3000 unknown rapists and it is quite possible that of the 16,000 rapes committed by black men in 2018, nearly half of them were rapes of White women. Maybe that is another of those old stereotypes based in facts? Like most violent crime, interracial rape is almost exclusively black on White, in fact White men raping black women is so rare that it doesn’t even really register statistically.
Dana Milbank makes a throw-away comment about per capita rates, while adding in the old “(likely a reflection of poverty)” bullshit but the report itself that he quotes (and is counting on no one looking at) makes a bigger deal about it….
Finally, violent crime is not “declining”, unless you compare it to the slaughterhouse of 2020 when black Lives Matter rioting and widespread shooting of blacks by other blacks set records all over urban areas across America. That is like say gas is cheap compared to the record high of earlier this year while still wildly more expensive than it was when Biden took office.
That is to say nothing of the widespread “non-violent” crime that grips most cities with feral yoofs robbing and committing general mayhem virtually unchecked by law enforcement.
When Milbank does mention homicide, he again tries to paint it as a Republican problem….
If MAGA leaders are truly concerned about violent crime, they might look inward. Earlier this year, the centrist Democratic group Third Way crunched the 2020 homicide figures and found that per capita homicide rates were on average 40 percent higher in states won by Trump than by Joe Biden. Eight of the 10 states with the highest homicide rates have been reliably red states for the past two decades. Republican-led cities weren’t any safer than Democratic-led cities.
As we have already established, it is an easily verifiable fact that many of the most stalwart Republican states also have the largest black populations. Let’s look at a side by side comparison of the blackest states chart from above and the top 10 murder rate chart referenced by Milbank from the leftist Third Way
7 of the states listed on the top murder rates on the right are among the dozen states in America with the highest percentage of blacks. Curious! What about the states not on the list of blackest states? Well New Mexico has it’s own demographic issues. As of the 2020 census New Mexico reported a population nearly 50% mestizo and climbing fast, and adding in illegal aliens the population became majority mestizo many years ago with the largest percentage being of Mexican ancestry. As for Missouri and Kentucky, their homicides are overwhelmingly concentrated in two cities, St Louis (43% black) and Louisville (35% black) respectively.
Also, and again previously proven, blacks are responsible not just for a disproportionate percentage of murders in America but are actually responsible for an absolute and growing majority of homicides
, breaking the 60% rate last year among known murderers (see: A New Record!
) while the real rate is closer to 75-80% (see: It Isn’t Really 13/50
Is Dana Milbank lying? Well in the sense of using very carefully chosen statistics to augment his predetermined argument, not technically. Is he engaged in such willful misrepresentation and sophistry to the point where he de facto can be called a liar? Absolutely.
However you slice it, black violent crime is a serious issue in America and it is getting worse. People like Dana Milbank know this and pretend it is otherwise for political reasons in public while going out of their way to avoid these violent black criminals in their personal life. Dishonesty, projection and misrepresentation are the hallmarks of every anti-White, anti-gun argument that has been made for decades.