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It Isn’t Really 13/50

One of /ourguys/ favorite stats is 13/50, short for “13% of the population commit 50% of all murders”. The 13% in this case being the percentage of the U.S. population of African ancestry and the 50% being the percentage of all murders committed by blacks. The point being that blacks are responsible for a dramatically higher percentage of murders in America on a per capita basis than any other race and of course other races, particularly the majority White population and especially the Asian population, are dramatically underrepresented as murderers.

As we have seen recently, black murderers as a percentage of the national murderer population keeps climbing, and in 2021 topped the 60% threshold for the first time: A New Record!
But that number is still deceptive:

The key word there is “known”. My claim is that the “real” percentage is much, MUCH higher than even 60%.

I base that assertion on a couple of facts, let me walk through them briefly.
One, the vast majority of murders are intraracial meaning that blacks tend to be murdered by other blacks, Whites tend to be murdered by other Whites, etc
Two, in the more rare cases of interracial violent crime, 90% of those crimes involving blacks and Whites (a category which includes mestizos as “White”).
Let’s look at Chicago as our test case for my assertion, with data from the good folks at Hey Jackass! we have some actual numbers to work with and a large sample size.
First, the year to date murder stats for Chicongo….
557 homicides and counting for the year. That is projecting out to a significant drop over 2020 and 2021.
Then the information on race for these victims and killers (as of 9/30 so a little behind the homicide stats above)….
As a reminder, Chicago is very “diverse” with the population pretty equally divided between Whites, blacks and mestizos.
Asians barely register on crime stats so we can ignore them. Almost 80% of murder victims in the Windy City are black, we will come back to that.
What is significant here is that of 545 homicide victims on the pie chart, there are assailants with a known race in only 74 cases. Engineer Jim check my math but that means that of 2022 murders, the race of the killer is known in only about 13.5% of the cases and among those about 66% of known killers are black, that is in line with the 2021 FBI stats of around 60% of known killers being black nationwide. About 6.7% of killers are White and 27% are mestizo.
What does this tell us? Since Whites/others are 4.8% of victims but 6.7% of killers, and mestizos are 16.7% of victims and 27% of killers, either that means that Whites and mestizos are killing a bunch of blacks (unlikely in the extreme) or White/other/mestizo killers are more likely to be identified and/or arrested. Again, in the case of Chicago we don’t know the race of over 2/3 of killers but we do know that blacks are almost exclusively killed by other blacks and blacks are far more likely to kill someone of another race than vice-versa (see: Once Every Minute). Since we know based on statistics that 90% of interracial violent crime is black on White while most murders are intraracial, it is safe and very conservative to estimate that at least 80% of unsolved murders in Chicago were committed by blacks.
Using that, we can estimate that of the 471 murders as of 9/30 in Chicago without an identified suspect, at least 377 of  them were committed by blacks. Add in the 49 we know are black and you get 426 out of 545 murders committed by blacks. That works out to 78% of all murders committed by the 28.7% of Chicagoans that are black and that is right in line with the 78.5% of murder victims in Chicago being black.
To reiterate, that is almost certainly still too low. I would argue that White and to a lesser extent mestizo killers tend to be more likely to be caught than blacks, thanks to the general relative willingness of those groups to work with law enforcement compared to blacks. Within the black community, “snitches get stitches or end up in ditches” means blacks don’t cooperate with the police. This is compounded by the general distrust of law enforcement by blacks and their culture of taking vengeance themselves instead of relying on the system. I imagine that a very significant percentage of murders in the black community are committed by known criminals and would be relatively easy to solve by police with a little cooperation from blacks. Because blacks generally refuse to help the cops, and instead prefer to perpetuate the cycle of revenge killings, the number of blacks being murdered continues to climb.
Of course this is just one city but Chicago tends to be reflective of the murder trend in America. Murder in America is concentrated in urban zip codes with concentrations of blacks. The current murder capital of America, New Orleans, is over 50% black and from what I can see most of those killed and doing the killing are also black. The other top five cities with the highest murder rates also have large black populations (data as of 2019): St Louis (43%), Baltimore (62%), Detroit (77%) and Baton Rouge (55%). Congrats to Louisiana for having two of the top cities for murder in America! For a state that has a population of only 4.6 million, they sure do like to kill each other a lot.
So really, while 13/50 or even 13/60 is a convenient slogan to convey a controversial truth, it doesn’t really capture the scope of the black murder problem in America. Maybe we can start using 13/80?


  1. Anonymous

    I prefer 4/80 myself. It is almost exclusively black males between 15 and 40 who cause 80+% of the mischief and mayhem in this once and former great land, so I say we call a spade a spade and dispense with the pleasantries. We all know the truth, whether it is painful to admit or not. They are a cancer. They are a plague.

  2. Mike_C

    Of course it’s underestimated. Two major factors:
    1. The clearance rate of homicides is abysmal.
    2. Deaths that are pretty clearly homicide are classified as “unknown cause”. Chicago Magazine had a good article on this. For example, a decayed corpse was found in an abandoned house. The decedent had clearly been wired to a chair. This was ruled “cause unknown/accidental”. Bullshit. But the latter creates less paperwork.

    All this talk of murder and ethnic disparities in rates is interesting, but now let’s look at major financial crimes. (I don’t mean taking $50 out of the cash register. I mean $50M out of the pension fund; that sort of thing.) There it’s not 13/50. Maybe 02/70? But I’m sure I don’t understand what I just wrote. Just randomly hitting keys.

  3. Anonymous

    "Exclusively" is inaccurate here – change it to the majority (i.e. over 50%). The sheboons do a reasonable amount of damage all on dey own. Don't cut them any slack. They attack in gangs, just like the males, but they tend to use knives and razors rathe than guns. They especially like attacking White women.

  4. Anonymous

    Friends and family will corroborate that for years I've said the only blacks without a criminal record are those that haven't yet been caught. I fully agree with 13/80. Add in the mulattoes and their even more intense resentment, and I'd even bump it up further. There is no magic ten percent – there is perhaps a magic 0.10% – and I'm not nearly Christian enough to say the rest are worth wasting a nanosecond on for the sake of cuckservative saint Sowell.

  5. Anonymous

    I'm still partial to the one drop.
    Ever play pickup basketball in a park with your buddies and a black guy shows up to play? Then another? And another? Then you are totally not raciss but arrange to go to a different park the following week? And the same thing happens? Then you stop playing basketball and instead go to the range? And then a black guy shows up in a slammed chrysler? And then two of his bros with their shiny new 2nd amendment wakanda stix? So then you start shooting at a friend of a friend's ranch but its an extra hour of driving and so that fizzles out so you start posting on badthink blogs about statistical nuance relating to our Greatest Strength? Me neither.

  6. Cederq

    Being an MP in the Army early 70s to early 80s, crime on bases was a black problem for the most part. We started the investigation looking at black perps. 90% of the time we found our assailant. It rhymes with your thesis AS…

  7. Xzebek

    By genetics and by culture the chimps are more prone to violence, have less impulse control and can't intellectually process the consequences of their actions. As such, they will continue to be a drag on any culture based on Western Civilization.

  8. saoirse

    @ Mike
    2/70 is pretty accurate, but if you factor in financial crimes where they aren't the defendants but play a legal role it increases to 90.

  9. Engineer Jim

    Your math can only be quibbled with in that the fraction of known-race murderers rounds to 13.6%, rather than 13.5%. And that's so trivial a quibble that I'm making it only to avoid disappointing my favorite FFL.

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