Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Will Democrats Become The New Center-Right Party?

I know that sounds crazy but hear me out.

We have not always had Republicans versus Democrats in America. There are lots of now extinct political parties that once had significant political clout. No one alive today has voted in the Whig Party primary, but a number of significant American political leaders and Presidents were Whigs.

It wasn't that long ago that the Democrats were the party of working class Whites, were supportive of segregation and opposed to "civil rights" and were mostly populist in nature. As the South shifted to Republicans, at the same time Democrats moved to the political Left, becoming more concerned with "social justice" and shifted away from unions and working class Whites and toward the super wealthy and the non-white vote. While the south was once Yellow Dog Democrat territory (I'd vote for a yellow dog if he ran as a Democrat), for the last couple of decades especially it has been solidly Republican. That is now changing as the former states of the Confederacy become less White and more left-wing politically. Net result, the Democrats today are completely different from the Democrats 50 years ago.

The Republican Party today is inextricably linked with White people, especially more suburban and rural Whites, religious Whites and gun owners. As that population shrinks, the Republican party is going to collapse. There isn't a Plan B and as I wrote about yesterday, several large and once reliable Republican states like Texas, Florida and North Carolina are about to become permanently blue and that means the end of the GOP as a national political force. Inertia and nostalgia will keep the Republican Party around for a while but increasingly it will be irrelevant.

What this means for the American political scene is a single-party rule with Democrats in more or less permanent control over national politics. However, even with complete national control, there will still be plenty of states and Congressional districts that will keep electing Republicans. This is an important map to consider:


Assuming Joe Biden wins, it will be on the strength of overwhelming winning margins in a few densely populated areas, mostly urban areas, areas with large concentrations of non-Whites and college towns like Madison, Wisconsin. You can drive in multiple routes from one coast to the other and never cross a congressional district Hillary Clinton won. If I avoid Chicago, I could drive 30 hours almost straight West through nothing but Trump counties. Hell, I have to drive almost two hours to get to a congressional district that Hillary carried.

What does that mean for the remnants of the Republican party? People become politicians for all sorts of reasons but they stay politicians because of the power and influence. Republican politicians in a House with a 275 seat Democrat majority or in the Senate with a 60 seat Democrat majority have no power, especially once the filibuster is eliminated. A politician who can't influence legislation is useless to lobbyists so the K Street money is going to dry up in a hurry. I expect to see a lot of "moderate" Republicans starting to switch parties.

Meanwhile in the Democrat party....

Behind the scenes, Pelosi and Schumer have to be feeling pretty good right now. They are a less than six months away from seeing a senile puppet sworn in as President and likely also controlling both the House and the Senate. With Chief Justice John Roberts moving further left with each passing day, things are looking good for their agenda. As the 2020 census is presented to the government, it is likely that we will see a huge shift in Congressional seats out of Republican states and into Democrat states like California or places like Texas where the new districts will be majority mestizo. See this report from CIS on the likely impact of the census: The Impact of Legal and Illegal Immigration on the Apportionment of Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020 Scary stuff.

But, as is so often the case politically, being the opposition is a lot easier than being in power.

The Democrats are united now because they have all of their energy and attention focused on Orange Man Bad. When he is out of office and Republicans are cast into political outer darkness, they won't be able to use Trump as their villain and then we will see exposed the truth behind the scenes. That truth is that the Democrats are really two political parties crammed into one.

One party is the Pelosi/Schumer wing, where most of the Democrat structural leadership dwells. They are the party of big business, homosexuals and affluent liberal White women. The big players in the Democrat party are owned by big business, as I wrote last June. Here are two screenshots from that post....




Schumer stands to become the Senate Majority Leader in January and Ron Wyden will likely be the new Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, a position he held until the Dems lost control of the Senate. These are the sort of Democrat you have in one of the sub-parties. Do you suppose they are going to "go after Wall Street"? Please. They want a nice, gentle modified socialist state where corporations and the top 1% keep making more and more money and the average schlep is bribed with government gibs into keeping his mouth shut. Their ideal is a technocratic oligarchy with lots of government employees and private schools for the children of those government employees.

The other half of the party?

This is the where "The Squad" lives and their vision is far more radical. People like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley have a very different and far more radical vision for America. Pelosi and Schumer want to perpetuate the current system, just with them in control, but The Squad, the Bernie-bro acolytes of Bernie Sanders, black Lives Matter and antifa want to burn the system to the ground and recreate it in their own demented vision. The list of examples is too numerous to detail but here is a recent one:


Oh, that makes perfect sense. If you no longer have rent or mortgages, where are people going to live? I suppose you end up with everyone getting "free" housing and we know what you get from "safe affordable housing". In fact we have lots of examples from the days of the Soviet Union and the glorious worker's life behind the Iron Curtain....



What The Squad wants requires tearing down the entire economic system, the very system that provides a decent standard of living for the vast majority of Americans. Schumer and Pelosi don't want this because they are super wealthy and powerful and the vision of the Squad coming to life would threaten their cushy existence.

The two halves of the Democrat party are in an awkward and uncomfortable truce for now but there is still some conflict.

This was on display when busty tavern wench Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez staged a coup in her district and unseated 10 term Democrat Joe Crowley. Crowley was Chair of the House Democratic Caucus when he was unseated, a very prominent and powerful position but he overlooked AOC and lost his seat. Lots of "yass kween" women and thirsty young soyboy liberals voted for her, and I am sure the fellas were impressed by her Econ degree and not this....


AOC is dumb as a bag of hammers but she is convinced she is like totally super smart and stuff and I am sure that is reinforced by years of guys telling her she is smart to get in her pants. A dumb person absolutely certain that they are smart is a dangerous beast indeed and although she is a Grade A bimbo, even a dingbat in Congress gets to vote on laws that impact your life.

When Trump is gone and Democrat realize they have complete control of the government, with no threat from Republicans ever getting back into power, what will that mean?

Civil war in the ranks of the Democrats as the old guard tries to keep the more radical members in line.

There have always been a core group of crazy leftists in the Democratic party but the loons think they are going to run the asylum. With mestizo voters becoming more and more prominent in the Democrat party, this will change the dynamics dramatically. Blacks used to be the core minority voting block in the Democratic electorate but they would generally show up to vote and then let the Dems do whatever they wanted. The mestizos are far more radical and vocal. They are also eclipsing blacks in the party. We saw in the primaries that mestizo voters were more likely to support Bernie while blacks voted for the more moderate Biden.

There are 435 Representatives in the House. Let's say that Democrat have 235 and Republicans have 200. Of the 235 Democrat seats, let's say 100 are from the more radical wing of the party. That leaves Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a pickle. She can pass crazy, far left legislation that The Squad will vote for but that will anger the corporate donor base. Or she can work with the neutered Republican minority, something far more palatable once Trump is gone. The Senate tends to be more "conservative" in the sense of being representative of entire states and since every state, no matter the population, gets two Senators, it is reasonable to assume that the Senate will be a tougher nut to crack for really radical legislation but many Republicans in the new order will be glad to vote for liberal "bi-partisan" legislation that doesn't go too far.

This will create a tug-of-war in the middle, a middle which will have shifted dramatically to the left of course. It will be easier for Nancy Pelosi to peel off a few dozen "moderate" Republicans, eager to pass some legislation and get back on the radar of K Street, than it will be to get The Squad on board with incremental steps.

People like Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib don't understand the subtleties of American government. They are from cultures run by warlords so not getting everything you want as soon as you want seems very frustrating to them. If someone doesn't do what you say, you machine gun their entire family and perhaps you eat them. Getting stymied infuriates them.

What I can see happening are the more radical members of the Democrats, frustrated by the pace of "progress" leaving the Democrats and forming their own leftist party under the banner of the Democratic Socialists or some other nonsensical name. This would work in the House where the districts are smaller but it would be harder at the Senate level although there are two far-left Senators who are independents right now, Angus King of Maine and of course Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

With the remaining center mass of the Democrats unable to pass legislation on their own, they will be forced to either submit to the incessant demands of the far left or bringing in Republicans to pass "liberal but not as crazy" legislation. I expect the latter to be more common. The more a Republican votes with the Pelosi wing, and as demographic change hits more congressional districts, the number of Republicans switching to the Democrats for pragmatic rather than ideological reasons will accelerate. Again, a Congressman in the party permanently out of power has very little appeal to donors.

Meanwhile, as more and more districts become majority black and mestizo, I can see additional radical Congressmen moving to a Democratic Socialist party. As the Democrats absorb more moderate Republicans, at some point the GOP will functionally cease to exist, leaving the dominant Democrats in the "middle" with Democratic socialists to their left and the tattered and impotent remnants of the Republican party in districts like mine to their right.

The situation would be interesting, with a mono-party in the middle and two fractious secondary parties on either side. By interesting I mean "interesting to political junkies" but a nightmare in the real world. Of course when I say "center-right", that is very different from what that term would have meant a decade or so ago when someone like George "compassionate conservatism" Bush was considered center-right. In the new political order someone like Pelosi might be considered "center-right", compared to the radical Left wing. That ought to frighten anyone but that is what is coming.

The 2020s are going to be a decade of dramatic political shifts with the Left becoming ascendant in various forms and the Right being relegated to political dissidents or a modern day Quislings. The old, largely false, political dichotomy of The Democrats vs The Republicans is over and a new era will begin. For the first time in the 244 year history of the United States, regular White citizens are going to become primarily observers in the governance of America while groups that had no hand in creating America are going to take the wheel. What will happen then is speculation but I have my own theories about how that is going to end and it looks a lot like Thelma and Louise going over the cliff.

At least it won't be boring.

2 comments:

  1. I see both parties breaking down. Rank and file on both sides is more-or-less done with the corporate versions of GOPe and DEMe.

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    1. Things are certainly going to get sketchy for the Dems around next summer. Having won everything and as the young radicals realize the party elders aren't going to play along at the pace they want, the cracks will turn into fissures in a hurry.

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