Forget New Hampshire and Iowa. Who cares about Nevada and South Carolina? Today is Super Tuesday in the Democrat primary race and by this time tomorrow we could either see a competitive two man race between an old guy and an old guy or we could see an avowed socialist running away with the Democrat nomination. I am leaning toward the second scenario.
Fourteen states. One third of the available delegates up for grabs. The big enchilada of California where Bernie Sanders has held a huge lead for weeks. The latest USA Today poll showed Sanders up by 19% over Biden, 35% to 14% and if that was true and Biden doesn’t hit the critical 15% mark, it could be lights out for demented and creepy Joe. The DNC clearly bought off some of the lower tier candidates, Mayor Pete Bootyfudge and Amy Klobuchar, to drop out and endorse Biden, but it might be too little, too late. Plus li’l Mike Bloomberg is spending millions to be a pain in the ass. He won’t win but he will continue to siphon votes from Biden, along with Elizabeth Warren. The same USA Today poll showed Bloomberg slightly ahead of Biden in California and the only other candidate over 15%. What happens if Bloomberg wins more delegates today than Biden? Does the DNC suddenly decide to back a New York billionaire to run against another New York billionaire? Delicious.
As of the latest polls, Sanders looks to win big in California, win solidly in Texas, of course win his home state of Vermont but also Elizabeth Warren’s home state of Massachusetts which should end her campaign. He looks to be ahead in North Carolina and Utah while trailing Biden in Virginia. That makes sense, Virginia Democrats are mostly Federal government flunkies and want to keep the gravy train rolling so they value stability over ideology. Sanders is well ahead in Colorado as well but with Klobuchar dropping out her home state of Minnesota will now be in play and Bernie has been sucking up to Ilhan Omar so we will see what happens there.
With 1,344 pledged delegates at stake I am predicting that Sanders comes away with at least 650 of them.