Monday, March 9, 2020

General Bernie At The Little Bighorn

Like a Communist flunkie reporting unpleasant news to Joseph Stalin, things are looking grim for Comrade Bernie. About 9 days ago he was looking unstoppable. Joe Biden was coming unglued in real time. The crowd of pretenders were refusing to drop out, sucking votes away from Joe. Bloomberg was spending money like a diminutive drunken sailor. Bernie was looking like the favorite to sweep up a ton of delegates and take a commanding lead. Then it all changed as Pete Bootyfudge and Amy Klobuchar both dropped out on the eve of Super Tuesday and threw their support behind Biden. Suddenly Biden was winning state after state and the Bernie-mentum was fizzling out. Bloomberg spent half a billion dollars to win a few delegates in American Samoa. Elizabeth Warren sent up smoke signals shortly thereafter that she was dropping out, leaving the race to Biden and Bernie (plus Tulsi, who is certainly cute but kind of being petulant at this point). Now it is a two-man race and all of the momentum is on Biden's side, although I doubt he even knows it.

The media turned on Bernie with lightning speed as they realized he might win and that Trump would have endless material for ads that would be lethal. Listening to the media you would think Bernie didn't get a single delegate on Super Tuesday but he actually received a ton. Biden won Texas but while Joe got 111 delegates, Bernie came out with 102. Not exactly a blowout. Meanwhile as of now Bernie got 186 in California to Biden's 148, so more than an even trade. The two men are quite close in total delegates:


A decent lead for Joe but Bernie is right behind him with plenty of delegates up for grabs tomorrow and next Tuesday. That hasn't stopped the media from declaring the nomination locked up for Biden and the narrative is working. A month ago Bernie was up 9% in Michigan. Now with the Michigan primary tomorrow, the polls are overwhelmingly in favor of Biden with the latest polls showing Biden up by over 20%. There are a significant number of delegates up for grabs tomorrow, especially Michigan with 125, and then a bunch the following Tuesday as Florida, Ohio, Illinois and Arizona vote.

Bernie can still win of course but the full weight of the Democrat establishment is coming down on him now. Even a contested convention looks very unlikely. Bernie seems like he is done and it sounds like he is going to fall in line like a good little soldier and support Biden, even as he ratchets up his attacks and his rabid supporters become increasingly shrill online. At his age, this is probably the last go-around for Bernie, the socialist torch will pass to tavern wench/Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and brother-marrying Ilhan Omar for the next election cycle. Even if Bernie denies Biden the outright win going into the DNC in Milwaukee, he will be well behind in delegates and the Democrat party is not going to allow him to be the nominee. Adios Bernie, it has been fun!

That means it is Joe versus Trump.

Hey, is that what you guys really wanted?

Joe has been in hiding lately, he was at a rally in Missouri the other day and could only speak for like 7 minutes, during which time he stumbled and stammered an incoherent message. He seems to be barely out in public while Bernie is all over the place. Perhaps his handlers, wisely, decided this is a done deal and are resting him up for the grueling general election. They have got to be terrified at the thought of Biden on stage, on live TV with no way out, for a couple of hours with Trump baiting him. Joe gets confused and flustered very easily already and that is going to get worse. Trump has no reason to not hammer him and if anyone can get under Joe's skin, it is Trump. I am expecting it will be kind of hard to watch, especially if Joe really comes unglued under the lights. Even with a sympathetic team of moderators, Trump has got to be licking his chops. Biden's team should really push to limit the number of debates but if I was Trump's team I would start calling for a debate a week as soon as the conventions are over.

No one is really excited and energized by Joe Biden. His main selling point is "Not Trump" but Trump's fanbase is going to be fired up. Trump will fill auditoriums to capacity with overflow outside, Joe will be lucky to fill much smaller venues halfway. All that said, Biden still might win thanks to simple demographics. The wild cards are going to be the COVID-19 and economy. With the stock markets getting hammered this morning and a price war flaming up in the oil market, the pretty solid economy Trump is counting on might unravel. The Democrats might be quietly excited about the unrest but stuff like this can get out of control in a hurry and widespread civil unrest probably plays into Trump's hands more than Biden's. Do you want a dementia patient who can't remember what day it is in charge if cities are burning?

Buckle. The Eff. Up.


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