Political polls are a dodgy business, as the 2016 election showed, as so few of us have landline phones anymore and most people are presumably like me and do not answer calls from unknown or unrecognized numbers. It is also June of 2019 so we are almost a year and a half from the election. Most normal people haven't given a moments thought to November 2020 and those that have are deeply dreading it. The ugliness that will be on display will make the Kavanaugh hearings seem like a stroll along the beach and it will be non-stop. One of the nice things about living in a non-competitive state like Indiana is that we are usually spared the barrage of ads that people in neighboring states like Ohio and Michigan have to suffer through.
Having said that, the early polls have doddering groper Joe Biden leading by a huge margin and this has been true since he officially entered the race. Fake Indian Elizabeth Warren seems to be overtaking Bernie Sanders for second place as a more palatable far left candidate with the South Bend Sodomite Pete Buttigieg and Kamala "Kneepads" Harris rounding out the "People receiving support from non-family members".
It seems weird. Here is a party that is totally sold out on identity politics and being "woke". Their primary voting base are rabidly anti-white male and are allegedly super concerned about #MeToo but here we have a decrepit old white man who is regularly handsy with young women and even little girls leading the polls. Biden will be just short of his 78th birthday when we go to the polls in 2020 but as of right now he seems the odds-on favorite to be the Democrats nominee. That means that it is likely the 2020 race will feature a 77 year old career white male politician versus a 74 year old white man who is the devil incarnate to liberals. Two old white guys fighting it out seems so 1990's after the last three elections included a mulatto twice and an old white woman once.
The conventional wisdom is that Joe is the safe bet. He won't spook white working class voters in union heavy states like Ohio and Michigan. He is reliably liberal enough to sign whatever legislation the Congress puts in front of him. The guy has never had an original or coherent thought in his life so he will dutifully do whatever his handlers tell him to do. He has never been the brightest bulb on the tree and these days he seems very frail and confused. His handlers seem to be taking great pains to keep him away from cameras and the press, clearly hoping to minimize the chances for the gaffe-prone creeper to do any damage. The plan is simple: keep Joe from hurting himself long enough to coast to the nomination and then let the weight of demographics, illegal alien voters, the media barrage and Trump's own betrayal of his base on immigration do the rest.
What I am interested in seeing is something that normally is not that important. Who will Biden pick as his Vice-President? Biden himself was chosen to be Obama's VP not because he delivered an important state but because he was harmless and was a counter to having a half-black President. I expect Biden's VP pick to be someone far different and more radical. It is also almost certain that his running mate will be non-white and female, more likely both. Peter Buttplug has a chance bit I think it is more likely we will see someone like Kamala Harris. Or perhaps even someone like Stacey Abrams. Abrams is far more radical than Harris and gets bonus points because she was done wrong by the white male patriarchy when she won the Georgia governors race by getting fewer votes.
Someone like Abrams wouldn't win the general election. She is too radical, too corpulent, too shrill and unlikable and too black and female. But she would help placate the base and rally the various minority groups and angry feminists who might not be enthusiastic about Biden. Plus she might head off a third party run by Bernie Sanders, as that would almost certainly kill Biden's chances.
While the VP isn't terribly influential normally, Biden is a very weak man and I could see him deferring a lot to a VP Harris or Abrams. More importantly, Biden is very old and seems to be in not that great of health. Making Biden the nominee and partnering him with a younger and more vigorous VP might be a backdoor way of getting a preferred minority candidate into the White House if Biden resigns due to health or just flat out dies. That might be the plan all along. Biden just wants to be able to be President. He doesn't have some sort of significant agenda, he just wants to sit at the big desk after all of these years. I could easily see him resigning after a year in favor of his VP and that might very well be the backroom deal they are cooking up. Joe gets to play President and the big party backers behind the scene get the radical President they want. By the time 2024 rolls around the demographic tide will prevent any Republican from winning ever again and the Democratic nomination will be the de facto general election.
Joe is a harmless, not very smart political hack. He has little in the way of an agenda and probably would struggle to even spell the word "agenda". Being the 46th President would be the crowning achievement in a lifetime of being a politician and if anyone could be convinced to leave office early in favor of a more radical VP, it is Biden. He clearly has the best chance to beat Trump so why not use him as a Trojan horse to smuggle a radical whammen of color into the Oval Office?