Tuesday, November 5, 2019

One Year Out

Today is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November and in America that means election day. We don't have anything on the ballot, while nearby Fort Wayne and other cities are electing mayors. But it also means that we are about one year out from the 2020 election which promises to be crazier than any election in my lifetime, including the 1992 election with Ross Perot and his chart infomercials.

It seems like the 2016 election cycle never really ended with the Democrats calling for "impeachment" before Trump was even sworn in. We have been dealing with screeching leftists for three years now. It was pretty funny for a while, the video of Rachel Maddow slowly melting down live on camera never gets old. Fun fact, the most popular videos of her meting down have disappeared and searching for some combination of "2016 election rachel maddow meltdown" that used to bring up a bunch of hilarious compilation videos, now only seems to being up official MSNBC videos. I am sure that isn't Youtube attempt to sway viewers or anything or provide cover for their ideological buddies at MSNBC. But it isn't really funny anymore. These people are crazy and they get to vote.

A lot of MAGA/BoomerCon types are already talking about a Trump landslide in 2020. Given the generally poor quality of the Democrat field, I can see why. Your top three Democrats right now are an old white guy battling early stage dementia who can't keep his paws off young girls, an even older Jewish socialist who has a hard ceiling because he is honest about his politics and as a bonus has a bad ticker, and then an old Indian white woman who at 70 is the spry young whippersnapper in the top tier. The rest of the field is collapsing pretty fast. Tulsi Gabbard, one of two non-insane candidates has been shut out of the Democrat field for failing to be enthusiastic enough about endless wars. Beto "Hell yeah!" O'Rourke is gone. Kamala Harris is finding out that you can fellate your way into politics but not the Oval Office. Cory Booker? Where is that guy? Pete Bootygay isn't going to win because the black and mestizo voters in the Democrat base find the gay to be gross. One trick pony Andrew Yang? Nope. It looks like Warren is the nominee and she seems vulnerable because of the fake Indian thing and being about as dynamic and inspiring as Elmer's glue (also she is just as white).

Not so fast.

I saw some interesting stuff yesterday on Infogalactic while looking something else up. I left the formatting intact.
-------

Close races

Red denotes states (or congressional districts whose electoral votes are awarded separately) won by Republican Donald Trump; blue denotes those won by Democrat Hillary Clinton.
States where the margin of victory was under 1% (50 electoral votes; 46 won by Trump, 4 by Clinton):
  1. Michigan, 0.22%
  2. New Hampshire, 0.37%
  3. Pennsylvania, 0.72%
  4. Wisconsin, 0.76%
States/districts where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (83 electoral votes; 56 won by Trump, 27 by Clinton):
  1. Florida, 1.20%
  2. Minnesota, 1.52%
  3. Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, 2.24%
  4. Nevada, 2.42%
  5. Maine, 2.96%
  6. Arizona, 3.55%
  7. North Carolina, 3.66%
  8. Colorado, 4.91%

------
We forget how very narrow Trump's victory really was. Trump took 46 electoral college votes in states where he won by less than 1%. Trump originally won 306 electoral college votes to Clinton's 232. You need 270 electoral college votes to win. 306 minus 46 is 260. Change a statistically tiny number of votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and we are talking about Hillary Clinton's re-election campaign instead of Joe Biden drooling on stage.

In my post Do The Math I looked at Florida as a state where demographics might mean that a Trump win is going to be very difficult. In places like Michigan and Pennsylvania it is not out of the question to assume two things. One, enough older white Trump voters will have died by election day 2020 to account for winning margin in 2016. Two, enough non-white voters will have turned 18 by next election day to overcome his margin of victory in 2016. A combination of the two spells disaster.

In the states where the margin of victory was under 5% there are no sure things. Arizona is changing rapidly demographically, as is Florida as I mentioned above. North Carolina is too although it is probably safe in 2020. On the other hand, I can't see where Trump picks up ground in New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine or Colorado. So to me, it looks like Trump has to defend every state he won in 2016 with little chance of picking up any states Clinton won while at the same time a lot of his 2016 states are highly vulnerable in 2020.

You also can't discount the impact of four years of non-stop negative press on the minds of average voters. The mainstream media is going to ratchet that up to a fever pitch starting very soon. Social media will continue to silence and suppress dissenting voices. Hollywood and the entertainment world will be out and unanimous in their condemnation of Trump. Antifa will be out in full force trying to intimidate people who want to show support for Trump. I would not be surprised to see serious injuries and even fatalities in the run up to the election. Political violence has been the stock-in-trade of the Left since 2016 and it is only going to get worse, especially where Democrat mayors of larger cities order the cops to stand down. In fact I would be surprised if no one ends up in coma or dead.

Add all of this together and mix in the general indifference of most white voters and I think that even with Warren or Biden as the nominee, the Democrats have a very, very plausible case for why Trump is a one term President and we usher in an era where liberals win the White House until we stop functioning as a nation. Remember a couple of things I have written. At this point Trump is just buying us a little time to prepare and the time to bug-out and be clear of the blast radius is right now, not when the fireworks start.

As bad as the clamor has been over the last three years, you ain't seen nothing yet. Get prepared physically and get prepared with your gear. Most important, get prepared mentally because the time is fast approaching when you are going to be forced to make some critical decisions and take a stand.

No comments:

Post a Comment