Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Everyone Else Should Pay For My Poor Decision Making!

The Democrat primary contest is not just a clown car crossed with a dumpster fire with a spoonful of trainwreck. It is also rapidly devolving into a bidding war to see who can offer the most "free" stuff to bribe liberal primary voters. Andrew Yang is proposing a Universal Basic Income of $1000 a month but that is child's play because it isn't nearly enough money and it doesn't punish the right sort of people. Yang is obviously not serious about winning. A better scheme comes from Cory "Spartacus, I totally don't have sex with men" Booker. He is proposing some sort of reparations, the issue du jour for liberals. Elizabeth Warren is proposing reparations and a huge student loan bailout. Bernie Sanders, not to be outdone by Fauxcohontas trying to out-socialist him, just proposed "canceling" all outstanding student loan debt. That is about $1.6 trillion dollars. Let's spell that out:


Dats a lotta zeros. I like how he calls it "canceling the debt" as if student loan debt is just some fictional concept, instead of representing funds that have been borrowed by adults and funds that have already been spent by universities. We are just going to "cancel" it. Poof!

Actually Comrade Bernie says he is going to make Wall Street pay for this bailout. That is about as believable as Trump saying he was going to make Mexico pay for his (non-existent) wall. Wall Street owns the Democrat party as well as the Republican party. Let's look at the leadership of the Republicans and Democrats in the Senate, Majority Leader McConnell and Minority Leader Schumer (courtesy of OpenSecrets.org )....

So they each have securities and investments, in other words "Wall Street", as their top donor industry to the tune of over $5 million between the two of them. Now let's look at the ranking members of the Senate Committee on Finance which overseas taxation, Republican Chuck Grassley and Democrat Ron Wyden:

Chuck needs to up his fund-raising game but in fairness he also is from Iowa, but Senator Ron Wyden has pulled in over $2 million from "Wall Street". What about in the House Ways & Means committee (they oversee taxation in the House)? Here is Democrat Chairman Richard Neal and Republican Kevin Brady, also from Open Secrets:

I am sensing a pattern here. It is almost as if the securities industry knows who to bribe support to protect their profits.

Please tell me more about how the U.S. Congress is going to vote for these huge donors to take a $1.6 trillion loss without some sort of backdoor compensation from the government. No, what is going to happen is that the taxpayers will end up on the hook for this debt in some way, shape or form. As always. That is the epitome of a regressive tax.

A lot of people who pay taxes didn't go to an overpriced university. They either didn't go on in their schooling after high school or they took affordable classes to learn a trade at a community college. They are middle class people with families and mortgages and car payments but they are apparently supposed to be taxed to bail out people who irresponsibly took out student loans for bullshit degrees that have no value in the marketplace. A prime example is this dame, Heather Gautney. Her profile on Twitter is about what you would expect:

A far left college professor? Didn't see that coming. Anyway, she tweeted this out yesterday in what might be the biggest self-own on social media this month:

So, she got herself $180,000 in debt to get a PhD in sociology which is in the top tier of most useless degrees at any university. There isn't really much calling for sociologists in the work force unless you are teaching that useless subject to other dolts. Boohoo, you went in debt to get a degree with no demand in the marketplace. But you get a tenured professor position at Fordham, which I assume pays very, very well for minimal work. Sadly you decide to teach at Fordham which is in New York City so you go to Twitter to whine not only about your $1100 monthly student loan payment but also that you are dumb enough to live somewhere where rent on an apartment is $2200/month. She should be required to stand on street corners in NYC wearing a sandwich board declaring "I iz dumbz". Instead she is a professor teaching young idiots the same meaningless "academic" discipline that she learned at a school with an annual tuition of $53,000, and also working as a "Senior Policy Advisor" for Bernie. Someone clueless advising Comrade Sanders, shocking! Here is a list of the courses Ms. Gautney teaches when she is not whining on Twitter:

Inequality in America, Transnational Social Movements and Political Sociology on Film. Wow, that is some hard hitting academics right there. Let's look at that last one in detail (from the Fordham webpage)

SOCI 3256. Political Sociology in Film. (4 Credits)

Film has played a central role in shaping the political landscapes of the 20th and 21st centuries and our collective understanding of them. The objective of this course is to enable students to read and analyze global and domestic politics through the medium of film an provide them with a firm grasp of theoretical and empirical issues in contemporary world politics from a sociological perspective. This course makes use of documentary, short-, and feature-length films to interrogate key themes in political sociology and analyze the most important political developments of our time. It also aims to provide students with an appreciation of the complex relationship between art and politics, history and mythology. Substantive areas of study will include: (1) terrorism and war (including civil war, military intervention, and the Cold War); (2) globalization, human rights, and "development"; (3) transnational and domestic social movements; (4) democratic and undemocratic political regimes; and (5) colonialism and imperialism. Readings will be drawn primarily from the field of sociology, but also from political science, history, and film and cultural studies. Four-credit courses that meet for 150 minutes per week require three additional hours of class preparation per week on the part of the student in lieu of an additional hour of formal instruction.

So they watch movies and read books about movies and analyze how those movies reinforce their existing political beliefs. No wonder you pay a decent annual salary in tuition every year for solid academic work like that. It is hard to believe that people that study nonsense like this, and it is complete nonsense, can't seem to find gainful employment.

Again, plumbers and store clerks and truck drivers are supposed to pay higher taxes to bail out someone that is such an idiot that they went almost $200,000 in debt for a useless degree and that chooses to live in one of the most expensive cities in the world paying more than double in rent than what a normal person pays for a mortgage. Not to mention the fact that the people who are going to disproportionately benefit from this are white professionals with college degrees and the optics of Mexican carpenters and black janitors getting taxed to bail out white liberals is awful.

You could make student loan debt something that is included in bankruptcy filings, that might help. Right now it is simultaneously as easy as pie for an 18 year old with no credit history and no job prospects to borrow $100,000 unsecured and at the same time it is impossible to discharge that debt no matter what happens. If you get into credit card debt or unexpected medical bills, you can declare bankruptcy. That is devastating to buying a house or even getting a job but it is a last resort. Student loans? You can never get away from them and the government can garnish your wages or your tax refund at will.

The student loan thing is a hot mess, no doubt. So is the credit card debt situation and the public pension underfunding and the looming insolvency of Medicare and of course the $22 trillion dollar existing national debt. The solution is going to be painful and just waving your magic socialism wand and "canceling" that debt isn't going to fix it because as soon as you do, students will start taking out new loans and colleges will keep inflating their prices double digits every year and the cycle starts right over again. The government can't fix the student loan crisis because the government caused it by creating an artificial lending environment where kids who have no business getting hundreds of thousands of dollars in unsecured loans are getting them anyway. That artificial lending environment upends the normal underwriting process where risk is a significant factor in loan approval. When there is no risk, there is no reason to not approve a loan. The only student loans that should be extended to students are loans for degrees with reasonable expectations of leading to jobs that will allow the student to make good on the loans (engineering, nursing, accounting, etc.). You should have to apply for a student loan and have that application submitted to underwriting standards like any other loan. If you can't make the case that your degree will lead to a high paying job, you don't get a loan which is how loans are supposed to work. More on this topic: Nothing Is Free.

Obviously the people cheering on #CancelStudentDebt have not given any thought to the ramifications of wiping out $1.6 trillion in student loans, whether that somehow means forcing "Wall Street" to take a huge hit which means that banks will stop offering student loans and students won't be able to afford the inflated cost of college or more likely that tax-payers will get saddled with the bill. They haven't thought about the ramifications because they are incapable of critical thought, and that is by design. All they are capable of thinking about is "I have a bunch of debt and it is a drag. I don't want to have this debt. Bernie says he will make it go away. I'm voting for Bernie". That is all the more complex of a level their thought processes are capable of operating on and again that is by design. Having a problem and making someone else fix it is precisely what Bernie voters are looking for. They are owed everything and they have responsibility for nothing.

Bernie isn't going to be the nominee. I think his support has a pretty hard ceiling at 30% and Elizabeth Warren is peeling off his supporters by proposing many of the same things while be less honest about being a socialist. What he is doing is moving the discourse to the Left. He is staking out a crazy position and that requires all of the other candidates to respond with their own slightly less crazy plans. We still have more than half a year until the first votes are cast, it is going to be a lot crazier in Clown World.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Welcome To The Big Leagues Buttplug!

Oh, poor Peter Buttpirate. His charmed life as a "serious" candidate for President, a candidacy driven entirely by him being the mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana and getting sodomized by other men, ran into a buzzsaw today. The issue is the shooting of Eric Logan, a career criminal who was shot in South Bend while breaking into cars. Mr. Lynch had a "6-8 inch knife" that he had apparently already stolen from a car, along with a purse stolen that was also stolen and didn't even match his shoes. He was ordered several times to drop the knife and was finally shot by a 19 year veteran of the police force who was backing up at the time. We don't have body cam footage because the officer never turned the lights in his car on. 

Booty-Giggigty took time off the campaign to go to a town hall in South Bend and got ambushed by representatives of "Reverend" Al Sharpton. The crowd was apparently very angry and hostile. A reporter covering the event I was reading on twitter sounded like he was a little scared.

I had some quips about it on twitter....

Aw, poor Peter. Turns out running for President, even with a fawning media boosting him at every turn, is a full contact sport. Pete just got knee-capped and didn't even see it coming and the first Democrat debates are this week. He is in a bad situation, if he shows up at the debates next week he is going to get scorched for it but he can't skip the debates or he loses momentum.

Al Sharpton has been playing this game since Peter Buttpirate was still playing with Ken dolls.

The scenario here is pretty straight-forward. The media describes the death of Eric Logan as a "police shooting", which is technically true but ignores the actual facts in the case, specifically that Logan is a career criminal who was caught breaking into cars and stealing from them, was armed and refused to drop the knife, and the cop who shot him was treated for injuries. There will be an independent investigation which will confirm all of this stuff but Sergeant O'Neill will now be in danger from angry black community members who only care about Logan being shot, not whether it was justified or not.

In the real world, the death of Eric Logan is meaningless. He was a 50 something year old career criminal with five stints in prison who lived with his mother. No one really cares about him other than his current utility to hurt Buttplug. Kamala Harris and Corey Booker both know they are now in the debt of "Reverend" Sharpton. That is how the game is played. Whether it helps them or not remains to be seen but Bootygag just found out that being a sodomite is only going to get him into the race and getting to the finish line is going to be ugly.

Do The Math: Texas Edition

Last week I did a piece that looked at the very difficult situation for Trump in Florida in 2020: Do The Math. I don't see a path to re-election for Trump without winning Florida again but now I want to look at Texas. Texas is the reliably Republican big state, not quite but almost off-setting California. Texas is a huge electoral prize and is generally not contested by Democrats, just as California is not contested by Republicans. In 2016 Trump defeated the Wicked Witch quite handily.

When you lump in Johnson and Stein, the "right" candidates pulled in around a million more votes than the "left" candidates. Pretty solid win.

But then look at two years later when popular Senator Ted Cruz had a tough win against an absolute imbecile Robert "Beto" O'Rourke....

The picture is a little hard to read but there were about the same number of votes cast, a little over 8 million, but Ted Cruz only won by around 200,000 votes. So assuming the same basic people voted in 2016 and 2018, that means 800,000 Trump voters pulled the lever for the spastic O'Rourke just two years later. Or 800,000 new Democrat voters showed up and an equal number of Trump voters stayed home.

In 2020 Trump is going to have to invest a lot more time in Texas than he would have in the past. Trump can still rally the base, in my home state of Indiana what was supposed to be a fairly close race in 2018 between Mike Braun and incumbent Joe Donnelly was a pretty significant blow-out and that is thanks in large part to Trump showing up in Indiana to rally the base multiple times before the election. But Trump needs to be focusing on states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and even other once reliable states like Georgia.

Like Florida, the electorate in Texas is not static and four years is a long time. A recent report from the Texas Tribune tells an ominous story:

Texas gained almost nine Hispanic residents for every additional white resident last year

Read that again and then look at this chart from the story:

Yikes. From the article:

The gap between Texas’ Hispanic and white populations continued to narrow last year when the state gained almost nine Hispanic residents for every additional white resident.

With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of 214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since 2010.

The white population, meanwhile, grew by just 24,075 last year. Texas still has a bigger white population — up to 11.9 million last year — but it has only grown by roughly 484,000 since 2010. The white population’s growth has been so sluggish this decade that it barely surpassed total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population, in the same time period.

In spite of endless attempts to transform the GOP to appeal to blacks and Hispanics, it isn't working. Blacks overwhelmingly vote Democrat and so do Hispanics, although not quite as uniformly.

Texas is turning into a miniature version of America as a whole as the large urban areas and the border counties are turning deeper blue each year while the rural areas remain deeply red.

The Hispanic community is growing in numbers across the state. But 47% of Texas Hispanics now live in the state’s five biggest counties — Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant and Travis. Home to Houston, Harris County leads that list with more than 2 million Hispanic residents. But Hispanic growth since 2010 continues to be most significant in Tarrant County.

The urban-rural gap is huge and growing, in Texas and around the nation. The more people we cram into the cities, the more those urbanites depend on the government and the more reliably Democrat voters they become. All part of  the plan; lather, rinse, repeat.

After decades of mestizo migrants, legal and illegal, flooding into Texas and other border states and having children that magically become American citizens, the demographic tide is on the verge of swamping the heritage American population. Worse, there is no sign that these new Americans will ever vote for smaller government, gun rights, pro-life legislation or tax cuts. There is nothing in the Republican party platform that will appeal to black and mestizo voters even though the policies themselves would benefit those groups. I have been making the case for years that tribal and racial identity trumps economic and policy concerns for minorities. In 2008 black Protestant Christians voted essentially unanimously for Obama and did so again in 2012, in spite of Obama's support for gay "marriage" and abortion (As a side note, no one dared bring up the politically monolithic black Christian voting patterns, but woe to the white evangelicals who voted for Trump). Electing a fellow black man was more important than his actual policies, policies that resulted in terrible levels of black unemployment for his tenure. Mestizo voters are similar in terms of in-group racial solidarity.

Because of this, Texas is going to go permanently blue sooner rather than later. Trump probably wins Texas in a struggle in 2020 but that is the end of it. John Cornyn, the other Senator from Texas, is up for re-election next year and will probably win again riding Trump's coattails but when Cruz or whoever the GOP runs is up in 2024, I expect they will lose and the two Texas Senate seats will either go Democrat or be held by milquetoast "Republicans" in the Susan Collins model: essentially Democrats.

Are you starting to see the big picture yet? For decades Republicans have abstained from securing the border for a variety of reasons, mostly because of their abject terror of being called "racist" by people who will call them racist no matter what they do and also because most entrenched Republicans are beholden to the Chamber of Commerce and corporate interests that demand cheap labor and reliable consumers. Trump was elected by promising to secure the border and he has utterly failed to do that. No wall, no immigration enforcement, massive numbers of illegals crossing the border and being scattered in the interior of the country. When he can be bothered to think about the border at all, he mostly threatens and blusters and then forgets what he said or backs down for the umpteenth time. Pointing out his failure to act gets you labeled a liberal on social media by Trump's fanatical followers. In fairness to Trump, the problem was already insurmountable when he took office but he could have at least tried. He should be waking up every day and cracking the whip over ICE and DHS and the Border Patrol to stop illegals and deport the ones we catch. There are well over a million illegals who have final deportation orders or are in the process, and they aren't being sent back. Every year we delay is another year for them to have an anchor baby or to disappear into the illegal alien underground.

Trump likely won't win Florida in 2020 but he will probably win Texas, although it won't matter without Florida, but by 2024 it will be essentially impossible for Republicans to win the White House as Florida, Texas and perhaps states like Georgia flip blue permanently and Republicans become an impotent permanent political minority. There isn't a way to stop this with the "leadership" we have now. There isn't a political solution.

That leaves two options. You can just accept things are what they are and hope you can survive out in the country or you can refuse to live under a Marxist government. There are no other options and the deadline to choose is less than 10 years away.

Saturday, June 22, 2019

When You've Lost hickok45....

There are lots of guys and a few gals on Youtube that do gun videos, mostly reviewing new firearms and ammunition. Many of them have hundreds of thousands of subscribers. One stands above the rest, literally and figuratively, and that is hickok45. He and his son have been doing videos since 2007 and have a combined 1.2 billion views. He currently sits at 4.2 million subscribers. I am one of those subscribers and usually watch every video. He combines self-deprecating humor with solid information and is a deadly shot for however old he is. He always starts his videos out thanking his sponsors and encouraging everyone to join the National Rifle Association. Then yesterday he posted this video and I hope Wayne LaPierre and the board at the NRA took notice.

The gist of the video is that they will no longer be actively promoting people joining the NRA. While they will remain members and are hoping the NRA straightens itself out, they are not linking their brand with the NRA.

The NRA has around 5 million members. Hickok45 has 4.2 million subscribers. I would bet half or likely much more than half of his subs are already NRA members.

This isn't sniping from the hostile Washington Post who wants to see the NRA fail. This is from a lifelong gun rights advocate who makes a living shooting guns and videoing it. There isn't a bigger advocate for the 2nd Amendment anywhere in public than hickok45. Sure he is "just" a Youtuber but he has a huge audience. As of this morning the video has over 111,000 views and climbing.

The blow-up at the NRA Annual Meeting was just the beginning. Now there are dueling lawsuits and the NRA just suspended their number two guy and chief lobbyist Chris Cox for allegedly being part of the "coup" against Wayne LaPierre.

Like many others, I am coming to the place where we need to clean house at the NRA and do it now. As it stands, Trump is going to have a very difficult path to re-election (see: Do The Math). Without the NRA to rally the troops, it is just going to be harder but it is looking like the NRA is going to be dealing with internal squabbles and fighting off lawsuits instead of advocating for 2A candidates in 2020. Wayne LaPierre has been at the head of the NRA since 1991, when I was a freshman in college. 28 years is a long time and with his compensation package in the millions annually, along with all of the perks he has been using/abusing, I wonder if Wayne is as focused on the mission of the NRA as he should be. He is turning 70 this year and it really is time for him to retire. The same is probably true for most of the NRA board. I understand the value of long-term lobbyists who have all the right contacts and phone numbers but this is approaching crisis mode and it is past time for the NRA to decide if it is in the business of defending the 2A and providing local gun events or is just a huge grift for top level executives and their cronies.

I still support the NRA because they are still the largest gun rights organization out there but I also support the Gun Owners of America. I have no idea who the head of GOA is and that is probably a good thing. If the NRA collapses it will be the greatest victory the Left has had in a very long time and losing an effective NRA would be devastating for gun owners. Every single Democrat running has the same draconian plans for gun ownership. Trump has been a mixed bag on gun rights but at least the NRA has his ear. If any Democrat wins you can expect executive orders immediately to make it harder and harder to buy and even to possess normal firearms. The NRA needs to wake up right now and get their house in order and it is pretty clear that the leadership of the NRA is more interested in defending their own turf and benefits than they are in defending my 2A rights.

The National Rifle Association is not Wayne LaPierre's organization. It isn't Christopher Cox's organization. It isn't the board of directors organization. It is our organization, the five million members who pay the dues that keep this organization running and who show up in November to vote for 2A rights. Somewhere along the way the leadership at the NRA forgot who the NRA is supposed to represent. They better figure it out or they will all be looking for new jobs.

Friday, June 21, 2019

Be Careful What You Wish For

This little news item caught my eye this morning while I was reading a different story:

Alabama church gets the OK to use private police force

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has signed a bill that will allow a Presbyterian church to use its own private police force on its campus.

The law, approved two weeks ago, allows the Birmingham-based Briarwood Presbyterian Church to establish a private law enforcement department to make arrests when crimes are committed on its properties.

On the surface, I have no problem with this at all. The church has around 4,000 members and some 2,000 students at their school. A satellite view of their campus shows this is not a quiet little country church:

I am also a big advocate of people taking responsibility for their own protection instead of relying on the state. This would seem like a no-brainer.

Here is the problem. Along with the 1st Amendment guaranteeing religious liberty, we also have the 14th Amendment that states in part (emphasis mine):

No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws

So that means that if a Christian church can have a private police force, so can an Islamic mosque. I wrote earlier this year about the troubling practice in New York of having a Muslim patrol running around the streets wearing uniforms and driving cars that are marked in such a way as to be easily confused for actual New York City police (See: Encroaching Ethnic Balkanization ). Here is a photo of the Muslim patrol:

That is pretty hard to distinguish at a glance from a real New York cop.

The problem I see is that when we start to let the various religious and ethnic groups have police forces, it can lead to unintended consequences. I don't worry about Briarwood Presbyterian, even though they are dirty baby dribblers, but giving Muslims the independent authority to arrest people? Right now it is only on private church property but what if a neighborhood becomes 100% Muslim, and they are given the same authority. Will Muslim private cops be given the right to pull me over if I am driving on a public street through their neighborhood because my wife's head isn't properly covered (she does cover her head already)? Why not gay private police for heavily homosexual areas? Perhaps they can require you to have a pride sticker on your car to drive through their neighborhoods.

If I were to say that my rural neighborhood is overwhelmingly Christian and we are going to organize an expressly Christian neighborhood watch, the ACLU would go bananas. So would the ADL and CAIR and every other non-Christian advocacy group.

In a sane nation you wouldn't have to worry about that happening but we don't live in a sane nation. Our laws and framework were written by and for a homogeneous population with common ancestry and culture. No one writing the Constitution or the 14th Amendment could have imagined an America without an ethnic and religious supermajority. The Constitution was written to:

...secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity...

As we unwillingly move into a pluralistic mess of balkanization and tribal rivalry, it is terribly important that we think through the worst case scenario of misusing laws. If Christians can have private police forces, so can Muslims and Hindus and Jews.

Be cautious of the law of unintended consequences.

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Why Cypher Is Really The Most Important Character In The Matrix For Today

American pop culture has many landmarks. From Woodstock to the Wizard of Oz, some music, films and books have left an indelible mark on who we are as a people. For just about anyone under the age of 50, the Matrix trilogy is indisputably one of those landmarks. From the paradigm shifting special effects which were cutting edge for the time, to the phrases and ideas from the Matrix that are commonly used by people, sometimes seriously and often for laughs, The Matrix is a powerful pop culture marker.

As a side note, although not a surprising one, I didn't realize until recently that Larry and Andy Wachowski, the writers and directors of The Matrix, have "transitioned" and now think they are women named Lana and Lilly respectively. It makes sense in retrospect that people who turned out to be mentally ill crackpots used that instability to create a paradigm shifting science fiction/cultural icon movie trilogy.

It is somewhat ironic that the Wachowski brothers are bark-at-the-moon crazy liberals along with being deviants and mentally ill. They probably think that their movies somehow reinforced some leftist fantasy of fighting corporate power or some other such nonsense. Yet one of the most iconic moments in their most iconic movie, Neo taking the red pill, has become a catch-phrase for the "alt-right". Being "red pilled" is a phrase that describes the moment when a "normie", or regular White guy, has an experience that radically shifts their thinking and opens the door to considering ideas that are labeled thought-crimes in our culture. The leftists have actually become The Matrix and the Right is fighting them. The internet is an endless source of irony.

At first blush, the Matrix is a pretty true to form adventure. The plucky but reluctant hero is enlisted to overcome overwhelming odds, complete with the love interest and the older, wiser mentor. Whether it is Harry Potter taking on Voldemort or Frodo Baggins defeating Sauron or Neo smashing the Matrix or Sarah Connor crushing the relentless and seemingly invincible Terminator or beta male Luke Skywalker blowing up the Death Star, you can watch or read these adventures and come away with a predictable satisfaction of good overcoming evil. However, simply seeing these as "good guys win, bad guys lose" mindless entertainment is doing them an injustice. All of them to one degree or another also have much deeper and complex themes and meaning.

I was chatting with my wife one day about something unrelated and I sort of had an epiphany. The most important figure in the original Matrix movie to understand is not Neo. It is not his love interest Trinity or his mentor and devoted believer Morpheus. It is not even the relentless Agent Elrond Smith. No, for my money the most important character to understand is the cyber-Benedict Arnold known as Cypher, played by Joe Pantoliano with just the right amount of sleaziness and amorality. Assuming you haven't watched the movie (in which case you probably can't internet at all and wouldn't be here), Cypher is the turncoat human that sells out humanity to the computers in return for a "reward" of being returned back to the Matrix, sort of a reverse red-pill, where he won't remember being red-pilled in the first place and is promised to be "someone important, like an actor" which was a nice, self-deprecating line. In this clip he explains in a conversation with Neo's girlfriend Trinity why he is betraying Morpheus, Neo and all of humanity to the machines when he knows the Truth:

"I'm tired". My, my, my. I certainly understand that sentiment. It is so perfectly human and so real. Even though the Matrix is completely fictional, the emotion Cypher feels seems absolutely believable to me. It makes him seem to be the most honest and human character in a movie where most of the time people are doing crazy, physically impossible things, in the Matrix. We live in a world designed to wear us down and make us want to just retreat into our homes and pretend everything is fine.

We all get tired.  Tired of the incessant outrages we see on the news and in the paper and now via the internet streamed to us in real-time 24 hours a day. Tired of an endless stream of humiliations, insults and irritating injuries. Tired of being told on one hand that we are terrible people who accomplished nothing on our own and on the other told we have to work and go into debt so that we can provide for those who refuse to provide for themselves. Tired of seeing the cities we built turn into garbage dumps prowled by dangerous men who kill for any reason or no reason at all. Tired of seeing the schools we built with the sweat of our brows and the money from our wallets being used to tell our own children how awful we are. Tired of being told that it is a worse crime to point out malfeasance by certain groups than it is to be a victim of those same people. Tired of seeing our nation rotting from within and being forced at gunpoint to subsidize those doing the destroying.

White Americans are a generally pretty stoic people. We are trained to suffer indignities without complaint. We used to understand that life was not fair, that suffering was part of living. We grew up trained to look to the future. I will work hard and sacrifice in order for my children to have it better than I did. So we did. Generations of Americans did. My dad did. When war came, we fought and many died. The ones who lived came home, put down their gun and picked up a hammer or a mail pouch or a pitchfork and went back to work. Now I see my people beaten down and cowed in this country, dreading being thought a racist, while my people in Europe are filmed over and over running in a panic away from the latest encounter with Muslim cultural enrichment.

The most important thing to remember: This is by design. We live hectic lives with brief interludes to eat food that makes us ill and popping pills that purport to help but usually make things worse. Instead of working hard so our kids have a brighter future, we are simply told to borrow money so they can go to college. Work smart, not hard! Then little Suzie and little Johnny get out of school and they or their parents or both have a debt load that would buy a nice starter home. We are absolutely inundated with entertainment and distraction such that few of us seem able to take our eyes off of our phones long enough to see what is going on around us. I believe the constant din that we live in everyday is the result of an intentional effort to wear us down, keep us distracted and exhausted.

Like Cypher, many of us are exhausted by the truth. It gets tiring to beat your head against a wall over and over again while so many fellow citizens just blithely stumble about their lives concerned only with when football season starts and how soon they can upgrade to the latest iPhone. There are many days when I want to just say forget it and go back into the Matrix where diversity is a good thing and Whites can pretend that things will keep going as they always have before. It is a bitter reality of human life that a comfortable lie seems to be better than a discomforting truth. An awful lot of heritage Americans are exhausted just like you and me.

In some ways I wish I could take a blue pill and go back to the more innocent days of my youth. Life was easier when I could worry about my fantasy football team and pretend the world wasn't going to hell in a handbasket. But I can't.

For decades we have treated this struggle as a political competition between fellow Americans and because of that we have operated under civilized rules of engagement. We go about our lives as normal and turn on the news in the evening and show up to the ballot box in November to cast our votes. When we saw footage of antifa rioting and people showing up to Trump rallies being attacked, having eggs thrown at them, assaulted for wearing MAGA hats, it caused something of an overload. It didn't compute. This isn't how it is supposed to be. We are all Americans and that means we all believe in the marketplace of ideas, in free speech and the freedom to assemble. But now you can't assemble freely in many places unless you want to get assaulted or have your identity splashed on the internet and potentially lose your job and have your family threatened.

Many like-minded people who instinctively know that something is wrong refuse to see it. Many others see it but are just worn out by the whole thing. Like Cypher they are just tired. Can't we just give it a break? Your exhaustion is part of the plan. They wear you down with assaults on so many fronts that you can't process it all and just give up. The media and most of the once anti-war Left is cheerleading an attack on Iran because that gives us the sort of distraction they love. A war in Iran is perfect. Gen Xers and Boomers alike remember the Iranian hostage crisis under Jimmy Carter and have a deep-seated revulsion for Iran. We even had the Iron Sheik in the 80s, a villainous Iranian wrestler.

Man, I hated that guy.

The game isn't being played like we were told. We think we are in a polite, spirited but civilized political disagreement but the other side sees this as total war. It is a jihad for them, a quasi-religious crusade against all of the evil heretics they have been indoctrinated to hate, specifically white men and everything they have built and everything we care about. This isn't something they think about as November gets closer. It is what they live and breathe from the moment they get up to the moment they fall asleep. Their jihad consumes them and gives their otherwise miserable lives meaning. They don't get tired or weary from the struggle because it is all they have. We have careers and families and neighborhoods. They have the jihad. They count on wearing us out.

We can't get tired. We can't just quit. Losing this fight means more than losing an election or seeing tax rates go up. If we lose this fight, we lose everything that our ancestors spent thousands of years building. It means no future for our children and our grandchildren. Each generation in the West is entrusted with a sacred duty to preserve and expand what was built by those who came before us and in this sacred trust we are failing miserably. We must change our thinking about what is going on.

If someone breaks into your home and threatens your family, you know what to do. You fight with every fiber of your being, no holds barred, nothing is off the table. I am not an especially violent person but if someone tried to hurt my family I would have no issue stabbing them to death with a steak knife or gouging out their eyes with my thumbs. There is nothing I wouldn't do to protect my wife and my kids. That is the sort of attitude we need because the other side has no moral qualms about anything. They think you are a Nazi and your family is too simply by association. They think your free speech is violence and are therefore justified in using actual violence to suppress your speech. They think you have stolen everything you have worked your entire life to earn and therefore they are justified in stealing it from you. They think you are evil because of your very existence.

Don't tell me about being tired. I am tired all the time. I get it. It wears you down, and makes it hard to sleep. It stresses you out and gives you headaches. Just remember the stakes we are dealing with. The Left doesn't want to win the next election, they want to burn down an entire civilization and exterminate an entire race of people. We must stop thinking of this in terms of a political conflict and start to see it for what it is, a lukewarm civil war. If you refuse to submit meekly to boarding the train to the gulag, you will become their enemy. The only options they are giving us are complete submission or utter annihilation. Therefore our only hope for surviving is to have the same commitment to our preservation as they have for our extermination.

We don't have time to be tired.

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Do The Math

President Trump kicked off his 2020 re-election campaign last night in Florida. He packed out an arena with 25,000 people, some who waited for 40 hours. When you contrast this to the pitiful turnout most Democrats are getting, it would be easy to get cocky.

Trump chose Florida for a reason. Florida is a must-win for him if he wants to be re-elected, by no means a certainty. Those 29 electoral college votes are non-negotiable. Florida is tied with New York for the third most electoral college votes and New York isn't in play.

Even in 2016, Trump didn't win Florida by much of a margin.

Trump won Florida in 2016 by 119.770 votes. That is a lot of votes to be sure but compared to the total number of voters in Florida, not really. I would bet a significant number of the 25,000 at his rally last night were among the 4.6 million voters that pulled the lever for Trump in 2016.

Now consider a few mitigating factors.

Factor One: Trump voters dying

Trump won handily in the older age brackets nationally. Of voters over 65, Trump beat Hillary 52-45.

Four years have passed. Around 2.4 million people die in America each year so that is almost 10 million people dying from 2016 to 2020, many from old age. It is reasonable to assume that a significant number of Trump voters will have died in the last four years. Florida has the fifth highest average age in the U.S., which is not a surprise since so many people have retired to Florida.

On the other hand, around 4 million Americans turn 18 every year so there are 12 million newly eligible voters in 2020 that weren't eligible in 2016. As the graph shows, Hillary walloped Trump in the 18-24 age bracket, 56% to 34%. It is reasonable to assume that this pattern will hold true in 2020.

Obviously young people die and old people live on into their 90s as the life expectancy keeps going higher, so it isn't a perfect swap but in general you tend to die when you are older rather than younger. Having made that concession, it is reasonable to assume that Trump voters are dying and Democrat voters are turning 18 in pretty significant numbers.

Factor Two: Hurricane Maria

In 2017 Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico and left a trail of devastation behind. To make it worse, the incompetent and corrupt local officials bungled the aid process. The mainland sent plenty of aid and the locals screwed up the distribution, although they somehow had time to get hats and t-shirts printed up. Even though they screwed up, of course the media passed the blame onto Trump. Puerto Ricans tend to be very far to the Left politically and already blame Trump for the hurricane response. So what you might ask?

The so-what is that an unknown number of Puerto Ricans went to Florida after Maria and many have stayed. The real number is unknown but quite likely numbers in the hundreds of thousands. Remember Trump won Florida in 2016 by just over 100,000 votes.

Factor Three: Voting Felons

Last November Florida voters overwhelmingly extended the franchise back to felons. That means upward of 1.4 million felons are now able to vote. The Republican legislature is trying to undo this as they know it spells disaster for their party in Florida but the optics of that are going to be terrible since minorities, especially blacks, are wildly overrepresented in the convicted felon population. Who do you think former felons will vote for, the party of getting tough on law and order or the party that excuses criminal behavior? It is about the safest bet in the world to bet that former felons will vote overwhelmingly, if not nearly unanimously, for Democrats. Even if only 10% of convicted felons show up to vote, that is more than Trump's margin in Florida in 2016.

Any one of those factors alone, coupled with the endless media onslaught since the election and the silencing of conservative voices, would be enough to make Trump's 2020 campaign look shaky. Add them all together and you have a tough time seeing Trump win Florida in 2020 and therefore his chances of winning re-election are pretty poor. It also wouldn't take much to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin back to the Dems and it isn't out of the question for Trump to lose Ohio and even states like Georgia and Texas.

It is very early of course but unless Trump does something to rally his base, he is sunk and so are we. A Democrat, even someone as flaccid and dim as Joe Biden, means even more open borders so illegals will flood the country at an accelerated rate; widespread gun control and attempts at confiscation; more regulations and higher taxes; "free" stuff tacked onto the already careening out of control national debt. It is scary but Trump has done very little to excite his base and get them to turn out for him in record numbers in 2020.

Next year is going to be a great year to stock up on stuff you think might become unavailable if the Democrats win. Starting right now is an even better idea.